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A framework to interpret external validition studies of prediction models

Date and Location

Session: 

O3.01.3

Date

Sunday 22 September 2013 - 13:30 - 15:00

Location

Presenting author and contact person

Presenting author

Thomas Debray

Contact person

Thomas Debray
Karel Moons
Abstract text
Background: It is widely acknowledged that newly developed diagnostic or prognostic prediction models should be externally validated to assess their performance. It is recommended to test the model in `different but related' subjects, but criteria for `different but related' are lacking. Objectives: To propose a framework of methodological steps for analyzing and interpreting the results of validation studies of prediction models. Methods: We identify whether the validation sample evaluates the model's reproducibility or transportability by quantifying case mix differences with the development sample. We hereto use an adaptation of the Mahalanobis distance metric and compare the distribution of the linear predictors. We quantify the model's performance with standard metrics for discrimination and calibration. Finally, we illustrate this approach with 3 validation datasets for a previously developed prediction model for Deep Venous Thrombosis. Results: The first validation study had a similar case mix distribution (p=0.752) and should therefore be interpreted as evaluating model reproducibility. Model performance was adequate (C=0.78, calibration slope=0.90), except for the model intercept (calibration-in-the-large=-0.5, p<0.0001). In the other 2 validation studies, we found substantial case mix differences (p<0.0001) and reduced model calibration (such as non-linear calibration slopes). These validation samples evaluated the model's transportability and revealed the need for more extensive updating strategies. Conclusions: The proposed framework enhances the interpretability of validation studies of prediction models. The steps are straightforward to implement and may enhance the transparency of prediction research.
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